What if Pakistan's nuclear arsenal falls into wrong hands?

ANIL NARENDRA

Pakistan is probably the most dangerous country for the world as it is a failed state, a failing economy with the faster growing nuclear arsenal. A day after Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry acknowledged that the country is developing, “battlefield nukes”,  the latest Nuclear Notebook report by Bulletin of Atomic Scientists reported that Pakistan has now a stock pile of 110-130 war heads against 90-110 in 2011. At this rate Pakistan could be the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025.

The Nuclear Notebook, one of the most authoritative source of information on Pakistan’s N-Capabilities says it is rapidly expanding its stock pile and also confirms India’s fears that it is also developing mini missiles to use against Indian troops if required. This has also been confirmed by acclaimed nuclear expert Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris. They say that Pakistan is developing short range nuclear capable missiles to repel any invasion by Indian troops. These bombs could be useful to dominate any low intensity conflict with India.

“Pakistan is probably the most dangerous country in the world, and as such, a serious case for close and continued US engagement with Pakistan should be made”, Kevin Hulbert, a former top intelligence officer who retired in June 2014, wrote in an op-ed in the Cipher Brief. The ex-CIA official Claimed that the spectre of the sixth largest country in the world being a failed state is a hypothetical catastrophe that would unleash a world of unintended consequences.

Pakistan finds itself in a very complicated security situation today where there is little differentiation among radical groups. Terrorist groups such as Lashkar-a-Taiba are suddenly allied with Al-Qaeda. While Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the Pakistan Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, and other assorted so called Jihadist groups and non-state actors are intent on bringing down the elected government of Pakistan.

The big question here is can the world trust Pakistan with this huge nuclear arsenal?  Certainly Pakistan’s track record is not very encouraging. Data analysis by British intelligence agency MI-6 helped to unmask Pakistan’s nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who sold nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea, according to information released to The Times. Khan was placed under house arrest in Pakistan for five years until 2009 for this part in the world’s biggest nuclear proliferation scandal. Khan claimed that he was made a scapegoat and all his activities were sanctioned by successive political bosses of Pakistan. 

This has in a way been supported by an ex-President of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf very recently.  Former President Musharraf has acknowledged that his country supported and trained terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) for fanning militancy in Kashmir. In an interview with Duniya News, a local T.V. news channel, the 72 year old former military ruler also asserted that terror leaders like Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri were ‘heroes’ but later became villain’s.

Former president of Iran, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has finally lifted the lid on Pakistan’s role in the development of Iran’s nuclear programme, saying Pakistan provided designs and technology including 4000 used centrifuges for enriching uranium. He did not disclose whether the transfer of the technology and designs had the sanction of the Pakistani government or whether the work of proliferation ring was run by scientist A. Q. Khan. 

Surely Khan could not have sold top level, closely guarded state secrets without the tacit approval of the Pakistani leadership?  Which brings us to the question can the world trust an unstable Pakistani political establishment with this nuclear stock pile? It is not only a worry for India, but the world cannot remain unaffected should these nukes fall in wrong hands? 

India’s Ex-Defence Minister Mr. A. K. Antony said, our only worry about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is that there is always a danger and threat of (the weapons) going into the hands of terrorists. While the issue has always been a cause of concern in the west, especially in the United States, anxiety levels have increased all around after the terror attack on Pakistan’s military establishments like the Naval Base in Karachi.

The same fear was expressed by Ex US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta. Panetta told reporters at a Pentagon news conference that the U.S. fears that there is a real danger of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists if terrorism is not controlled in the country. It is high time that the world woke up to this grave possibility. It is the duty of the United States to ensure that there is a tight lid on Pakistani nukes. It is not only India’s worry but the world will be a safer place if US takes control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.