Election dates for five states have been declared. Perhaps it wouldn’t
be wrong if these elections are considered as semi-final for 2019 Lok Sabha
elections. These elections have not only their own impact across the nation but
these will also decide the direction and condition of the future politics. Some
people are also mentioning it as referendum study of the policies of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi. These will upto much extent decide that how much public
support Narendra Modi has got after completing his two year term? After Lok
Sabha elections, these assembly elections are going to be the biggest challenge
for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In fact not only Modiji’s prestige is at
stake with these elections but these will be a referendum over his biggest
decision of demonetization also. Besides the impact of these elections will
also be visible in the presidential elections to be held after six months,
because if BJP fails to form its government in atleast three states out of five
states, it may have to face problems at the time of presidential elections. If
the mandate goes as per the expectations of the government it will be
encouraged to take more big steps, but if it’s not so then Modi government will
hesitate to take big decisions in future. It will be an opportunity to fulfill
its dream for BJP waiting for majority in UP for the last 24 years. The UP win
may remove the dent on the image of Modi due to the defeat in Bihar .
In UP elections not only the prestige of Modi is at stake but the existence of
state parties like SP and BSP is also in questions. BJP is once again trying to
come in power in UP with the support of Modi magic. Arranging maximum rallies
of Modi, the party has expressed its desire to contest due to the centre’s
policies. The reason for that is of not having any strong regional face. In UP,
the largest state of the country, the regional parties like SP-BSP have
predominance for the last three decades. Not only personal prestige of Chief
Minister Akhilesh Yadav is at stake this time but the political future of SP is
also in question. Party’s prestige has been shocked due to family discord.
Akhilesh supporters believe that Akhilesh has emerged as much stronger than
before. Contesting for progress, whether he rides Cycle or not, it yet to be
decided. So far as Mayawati is concerned, BSP as earlier depends on single show
of Mayawati. Party will try to win on Dalit-Muslim formulae. These elections
are important for Congress also. For Congress not only future, but existence
also rests on the results of these elections. These are a Do or Die for the
party. UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and
Manipur, in all these states the prestige of Congress is at stake. Although
excluding UP, party is currently smooth in other states. In the coming
elections party has to save its fort in Uttarakhand, and will have to try to
come back in power in Punjab and Goa . In UP
the biggest challenge is improving its performance, and the bigger than it’s
stopping BJP to gain power. While Congress has to save its fort in North-East,
BJP has come to ground with the target of Congress Free Manipur. After forming
government at its own in North-East for the first time with the victory in Assam Goa . Party has not
projected anyone as CM which has given an opportunity to opposition to attack
through its sitting CM Laxmikant Parsekar. Party of Sangh Dissidents has also
added the problems. This party has been formed just with a stated purpose of
teaching BJP a lesson and defeating it. Aam Aadmi Party has projected
Ex-bureaucrat Elvis Gomes as its CM candidate. Gomes is seen as an honest
officer in Goa . The contest has become three-cornered
with the entry of Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab .
So far contest has been between Akali-BJP alliance and Congress for power in Punjab . AAP is directly targeting Akalis and treating
Congress as out of contest. This is a contest of existence for both AAP and
Congress. Akalis have to tackle its ten year incumbency. UP is being treated as
most important among these five states. The state besides having its political
importance in the country, being its largest state it will to much extent tell
the future prospects. Being the largest state the UP elections will be held in
seven phases. Due to this election process will last for more than two months.
Meanwhile there are festivals also like Republic Day and Basant Panchmi.
Besides the Union Budget (?) will also be presented and with the results of
these elections; the fun and frolic of Holi will be knocking at the door. The
Election Commission will have to face the challenge of implementing the order
of the Supreme Court banning the election use of religion, creed, language and
caste.
-
Anil Narendra
No comments:
Post a Comment