Is by poll results hint of the end of Modi wave?

Ani Narendra

Riding on Narendra Modi wave to reach the throne of Delhi, BJP has been shown a reflection of shock by the people in recent by polls. Though, these results usually do not reflect the full picture of the future but they serve as an indicator for the winning or losing political parties. From the results of by election held for three Parliament and 33 Assembly seats the party which needs to learn a lesson is the BJP. Even in many areas where BJP won tremendously in the last general elections, this time it had to face a defeat in Assembly by elections. 

Particularly in Uttar Pradesh where the party failed to save the seats vacated by its own members should be a major cause of concern for BJP. Moreover, the results are a testimony to the fact that the Parliament election results of the states were more in the favor of Narendra Modi than the BJP. In the Parliament elections, BJP had won all the 25 seats in Rajasthan and earlier to that the Congress was decimated in the Rajasthan Assembly elections. This time, Congress has won three out of four assembly seats and the BJP has been able to get only one seat in Rajasthan. It is true that the recent and earlier held elections are not an examination for Modi government, but it was also not expected that the opposition party is going to succeed in getting maximum number of seats in comparison to the BJP.

First in Uttrakhand and then in Bihar, the same has happened in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. From these results, one thing is clear that people voted in different pattern while voting for Parliament and Assembly elections. In the Parliament elections, Narendra Modi’s name as a contender for PM’s post was the main reason behind the people voting for BJP and due to this many local issues and patterns were ignored by them. Whereas in these by elections, Narendra Modi was not an issue  as these by elections would in no way have affected his remaining in power as prime minister therefore voters have given much more importance to the other concerns than Modi which resulted in the loss to the party. It would not be incorrect to say that in these by election Modi factor was the main issue. If BJP has won the Parliament elections due to the image of Modi then it would not be wrong to say that this time BJP has lost due to the falling image of Modi.

The ego of various BJP leaders has also resulted in heavy loss to the party. Today BJP workers are frustrated and dispirited and have not come out of their homes. Elections are usually won more on the performance of the grass root workers rather than the leaders, but after coming to power, the BJP leaders seems to be on the seventh sky where workers cannot reach, therefore the workers also teach you a lesson.

BJP opponents can interpret this win in by polls in whatever way they wish but they should not get carried away by this win and should avoid saying that we have gained by the disillusionment of the public with the Modi Government. Similarly, BJP has to refrain from saying that it is a fact that election results are always in the favor of the ruling party in the state. Rajasthan is a glaring example of this reverse trend. Gujarat is also showing a similar picture. But in Uttar Pradesh, circumstances were totally different as it was not expected that BJP is going to lose its eight seats to Samajwadi Party whose administration was universally being criticized. 

However, there is cheering news for the party from West Bengal. By winning one out of two assembly seats in West Bengal party has been successful in giving a hint that it is the main political force against Mamta Banerjee. If we talk about non BJP camp then SP’s success in Uttar Pradesh is very beneficial and has not only been able to win eight out of eleven Assembly seats but it has also been able to maintain its hold on Manpuri. With this victory SP not only been able to revamp its lost image in Parliament elections but it has been able to prove its overwhelming lead over BJP. 

As far as congress is concerned, for it Rajasthan results will work as rejuvenating force, similarly party considers win on three seats in Gujarat as significant. It is stated with pain that the strategy adopted by the party for the by polls became the reason of its loss. Ironically, how its leaders forgot that that the reason for its thumping win was the developmental issues rather than emphasizing on Love-Jihad type issues. 

But it is typical of any by elections, the winners claim that these results are a mandate against the opposition but the losers demean these results by trying to blame the local issues for the loss.

However, the picture of politics will get clearer with the outcome of Maharashtra and Haryana Election which are likely to come in the next month. Till then there will be more discussions on the Assembly results. But it is clear that Narendra Modi and BJP Leadership would have to change their conduct in order to win elections in future.