Gujarat Assembly elections to determine policies of both the State and the Centre

Anil Narendra

The Election Commission of India has announced the Assembly elections programmes for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Gujarat Assembly elections are not only of special importance to the Chief Minister Narendra Modi, but these have the potential of shaping the future politics of the country. It is being expected that Narendra Modi would complete his hat-trick in Gujarat this time. These elections may be for the State Assembly, but for Modi, these have turned to be the fight for the Centre. For political victory of the Party, just returning to power in the State would not suffice, it would have to register a much bigger victory than the earlier one, otherwise it could lead to its defeat at the Centre. Though the elections in 2007 were quite difficult for Modi, but this time he will be facing challenge on two fronts. In fact, there are indications that not only the Opposition, but the BJP is averse to the Modi politics. It became clear at the recent BJP National Executive meeting, where Lal Krishna Advni and Party President Nitin Gadkari also talked about the secular image of the Party, and said that this image should be such that other parties could be assured of it. The Party is also divided over Modi. There is no dearth of leaders in the Party, who want to keep Modi away from playing any role at the Centre. Under such circumstances, if Party loses some seats in Gujarat, then Modi would be considered to be a loser, even if he scores a victory. But, forget about the resounding victory of 182 seats 12years’ ago, it would be very difficult for the Party to repeat the 122-seat performance of last elections. Some observers are of the view that Modi will be losing his power this time. He may be able to save his Government, but one thing is sure that he would be winning lesser seats this time. He is aware of the situation and that is why he is aggressively attacking the central leadership of the Congress. This fight could have been more interesting, had the Congress had some powerful local leader. This time, however, the Third Front could have made the Gujarat fight more interesting. Mamata Bannerjee has talked of an alliance, which may include third front leaders and this front could attract Muslim votes also. But, it may not lead to change of power in Gujarat. There is one more view, gaining ground. In case, Modi wins the Assembly elections, the BJP may have to face new problems in 2014 General Elections. Then, Modi will have to be accommodated as a star campaigner, if not projected as the future Prime Minister. It would not only create fissures in the NDA alliance, but in view of opposition of Muslim voters, Party could also have to face losses. That is why the way ahead for Modi is likely to be quite risky. He will have to win and that too, with an impressive margin and seats. Thus, the Gujarat election results would be of immense national importance.