What is the real intention of Maulana Kadiri, Judiciary and Army in Pakistan?

Vir Arjun, Hindi Daily Newspaper Published From Delhi

अनिल नरेन्द्र

Internal situation and equations in Pakistan are changing very fast making it impossible to understand the real state of affairs in this neighbouring country. Tension is prevailing in both the countries after beheading of an Indian jawan and there is apprehension about the future.  The sudden appearance of a Maulana on Pakistan’s political scene has jolted the country and the rest has been done by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Now it is being asked if Pakistan will be confronting the revolution as has been carried out in Arab nations. Is Pakistan the new address for the ‘Arab Spring’? A huge demonstration was held in Pakistan on Tuesday under the leadership of a Sufi religious leader Tahir-ul Qadri in the capital Islamabad demanding resignation of the Pakistan Government. A revolutionary fury was being witnessed on the streets of Pakistan. It is strange that how lakhs of Pakistanis gave their support to Maulana Tahir-ul Qadri, who had suddenly returned to his country from Canada after eight years. Residing in Canada for last eight years, the Maulana reminds us of Ayatullah Khomeini. The time will tell about intentions of the Maulana for coming to Pakistan, who is appealing to both the Shia and Sunni intellectuals and what will be the outcome of his efforts, but as of now he has been receiving tremendous support from the public at the time, when confrontation between the Pak judiciary and the elected Government is at its peak. The Supreme Court of Pakistan has at this very time ordered the arrest of the Prime Minister, Raja Parvez Ashraf within 24 hours. He is an accused in rental power project scam of crores of rupees. The Apex Court has also ordered the arrest of a number of former ministers and officials connected with the power project. It would be interesting to see if it was a coincidence that these decisions were taken at a time when revolutionary demonstrations are taking place on the streets. The Islamabad march of Maulana Qadri has been getting huge support from the masses. The way the Apex Court is taking hard legal and constitutional decisions keeping the national interests supreme indicates the potential of future changes. Last year in June, when the then Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was declared unqualified for the post of the Prime Minister and Gilani was compelled to accept the decision of the Supreme Court, it was apparent that this judicial activism was indicative of potential of a big change in the country. Supreme Court’s order of arresting the Prime Minister immediately has led to a serious political dilemma before the PPP-led Government, whether to obey the orders of the Apex Court or to ignore them? If it obeys the orders, then one more Prime Minister would become victim to Court’s decisions within seven months. The then Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had to tender his resignation under pressure from the Supreme Court. But this time, the Court has moved a step further and has ordered to take action against the President Asif Ali Zardari. Such an order was given earlier also, but then, Gilani had expressed his inability to act on the order saying that constitutionally the post of the President is higher to that of the Prime Minister. Today, the masses of Pakistan, Pak Army, Pak Judiciary and Maulaan Kadiri have joined hands against the Zardari Government. Now let’s talk about Maulana Kadiri. Dr. Qadri is the President of the Minhaj-ul-Quran Party. He is the leader of the popular Bareilvy community. Dr. Qadri has a doctorate degree in Islamic laws and he has the dual citizenship of Pakistan and Canada. He had migrated to Canada in 2005. Earlier, he was a member of the National Assembly of Pakistan and he had resigned from the membership before leaving for Canada. Now, all of a sudden he has returned to Pakistan after 7-8 years and has become a leader of the masses overnight. How Maulana Qadri is getting such a big mass support? Will he stick to his views that he is expressing today or he has some hidden agenda? Pak Army and Pak Judiciary have indirectly praised Dr. Qadri. Is he a plant of Pak Army or of some foreign power? Indian diplomatic experts believe that prevailing situation in Pakistan is once again leading Pakistan towards military rule. Dr. Qadri has put forward five demands. First, Parliament and all the four Assemblies be dissolved immediately; second, elections should not be held till corruption is uprooted; third, Election Commission should also be dissolved; fourth, interim Government may be formed in consultation with the political parties and the Army; and fifth, new laws be formulated to stop democratic despotism. According to an analysis by a Pak journalist, the objective of the agitation by Dr. Qadri at this very moment is to postpone elections and constituting interim government with the blessings of the Army. Qadri considers it the right time as the Government is seriously being accused of corruption. Even the President Zardari is facing litigation on corruption charges. The tenure of the Parliament is, however coming to an end and general elections are approaching. There is possibility of general elections to be held in May-June being postponed. An interim Government with Army’s support may be formed and Qadri could emerge as power to reckon with. India will have to tread cautiously. Instability in Pakistan is not in India’s favour. If there is instability in Pakistan, it will lead to spurt in anti-India activities there. Pak Army least interested in improving relations with India. There is also possibility of jehadi groups taking advantage of this instability. Not only India, but America and other western countries are deeply concerned over nuclear arsenal remaining in safe hands. In brief, it may be said that coming few days may not be challenging only for Pakistan, but for the world including India too.